How to Estimate Without Time Units

If you want to know how to estimate without using time units, here's how I do it:

For my work, I block out half-day chunks of time. I find that I can do some tasks in that half-day chunk (1, 2, or 3), and finish enough on any one thing that I can safely mark it as done enough and go on to the next task.

Some days, I have tons of little things to do: return calls, make lists, prepare to do something. Some days I have larger tasks: write a blog entry, draft a workshop, write a ton of email. Some days I have quite large tasks: draft 1 of a piece of a chapter, draft 1 of an article, draft 1 of a report.

Most weeks, I have a mix of things that are small, medium, and large. I no longer worry or estimate how long any of these things will take. I know about how many of the small, medium, and large tasks I can finish in a week. I can make my lists taking that into account.

If you are a developer or tester or BA or technical writer or a whatever (don't want to leave anyone out :-), you can do the same thing. Here's my recipe:

1. Make sure you've taken any task larger than a half-day chunk and broken it down into smaller tasks. That's why you see draft 1's for articles. I can write a draft in less than a half-day. I can't finish all the editing and have a great article at the end of a half-day. So, I don't try to do so.
2. Be clear on what done means for a particular task. If you don't know what done means, you can't get there. You'll either "finish" without getting to a reasonable stopping point and then you worry, or you can't finish in less than a half-day chunk.
3. Do just that one task until it's done. Commit to it. Finish it.
   

Now you have a little recipe for getting the tasks done. Here's how you apply it to your estimation. When someone asks how long something will take, you look at all your little tasks. Make sure they small, medium, or large, where large still fits in a half-day. You get no more than 10 half-days in a week. How many of these tasks can you do in a week? Add them up, and there you have your estimation without having to define how many hours a given task is.

If you're part of a project team, and want to try this on a larger scale, I particularly like the Fibonacci series (1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 20) for estimating how large and complex a task is. As a team, use a Delphi approach (everyone gets together and as a group agrees on a number. For me, and when I teach my estimation workshop, any task larger than a 13 means "we have no clue and 20 is as good a number as any other number." When you hear someone is a specialist and can finish something earlier,  take the larger of the two values.

Other folks use t-shirt sizing: XS, S, M, L, XL, 2XL, 3XL. I don't like that as much, because, in my experience, teams don't learn to break tasks down enough, and have too many M, L, XL tasks. YMMV.

Now, it doesn't matter if you work in iterations or not. Take a week. As a group, ask "How many of these tasks can we do in a week?" Discuss the question. Arrive at a number you can all live with. You're done!

Remember that estimates are guesses. They are likely to be wrong, especially if you use time-based units. That's because we are either optimists or pessimists and because we never have ideal hours, days, or weeks. Try this and see what happens to your estimations.